What is next

Posted by: Rudra Pandey

There will be more chaos as we can’t please Maoist no matter what. They want to establish Maoism – who can tolerate that? There will be new constitution – but a lot will happen before that. The tough road is election of constituent assembly which is not possible without Maoist participation and Maoists never believe in free and fair election. They want “unconditional” constituent assembly election. That means government needs to hold election while the Maoist continue to do killing and extortion. As we know from the past, that Maoist continued killing and extortion even during cease fire. We can’t let Maoist have 75% majority in the assembly just because they have night time control of villages and they can threaten people to vote for their candidates. They will try to rig the election and win by force if the government holds the election without disarmed Maoist participation in the interim government.

If the government stands by the condition that the Maoists have to de disarmed and need to be participating in the interim government, the Maoists may not agree to that. They will take that as a highly risky route. As we all know that the Maoists have almost nil public support, the notion of them being disarmed before the election is in fact risky for them if they are planning to have majority in the constituent assembly and form a constitution to allow one party communist government. That’s’ why I fear that the Maoists will not participate in the election of constituent assembly unless it is “unconditional” in their terms. Government can’t agree to “unconditional” constituent assembly election. If they do, it won’t be fair to those thousands of martyrs who lost their lives fighting the Maoists cruelty directly or indirectly. We can’t just submit to those who gave barbaric death to innocent people. However, the Maoists may soften themselves and may very well surprise us as they may have learned the lesson during last 10 years that extortion, killing and looting cannot topple a government. Look what general public with “no arms” did in three weeks! If they have little bit of wisdom, they should learn from this.

Let us say that Maoists do participate in the constituent assembly election and the assembly body is peacefully elected. Let us keep our finger crossed! The bitter fight will then start on monarchy’s role. Maoist will want them to go away and seven parties may want ceremonial monarch to remain. The King will try to play his last card, if any left. There is tough fight ahead. But, I predict in the end Nepalese people will win. I am sure party leaders have become smarter having gone through this recent crisis. It is 101 of management lesson that leaders mature as they go through crises.

Likely possibility, Maoist will continue to fight till they are totally defeated. And they need to be defeated. There is not even a single example in the world that communists have joined multi-party system until they are defeated by democratic and capitalist forces. Prachanda and Baburam may very well want to become another Gyanendra. We won’t let that happen. Nepalese people made Gyanendra with 150,000 armed forces bow before the public; we definitely can teach the Maoists a lesson. We Nepalese people are ready for the worse and are prepared to show grace and mercy. Maoists should not underestimate people’s power.

What is next was last modified: January 15th, 2014 by Rudra Pandey
 

Blog Comments

  1. dovan

    we all condemn maoists violence but cannot also deny that they represent the sentiments of majority of poor nepali people who feel deceited by this rajya (which has acted as extension of gorkha rajya but not real nepal).

    maybe sometimes we have to get outside of the ether of ‘americanism’ and throw away the glasses of ‘american capitalistic totalitarian’ and realise our gound reality .

    barbaric activities of maoists leave us with so much suspicion and fear but the wave , the awakening and the stir that they have brought to shake the foundation of age old suppression needs to be utilized.

    lets leave the policy of “maoists are terrosists; kill them, crush them”

    but welcome them in the common arena of multi party democracy.

    if maoists try to deceit us and establish autocratic one party communism , nepali people know how to get it to its knees. (maoists must be well aware of the people’s power that has just overthrown this autocracy of monarchy)

  2. Binaya Neupane

    The first thing is an advocate of Maoism has to be disarmed and secondly they have to be penalized.

    It requires much effort and trouble and some what inconceivable to sew the hardliner to be swarming. The history shows communism has already been foiled from the world and have to from Nepal. The people from the land of peace are well equipped and harnessed with leeway to this insurgency.

    Let’s be noesis; leastways get a line from Ants; ANTS ARE THE SOCIAL INSECTS.

  3. yalu

    Very thoughtful analysis indeed… I salute the spirit of you both. When there is not much voice against the extortionists, we the illustrious people should not sit quiet. Please let us not be swayed like we seem to be. This is a taut situation and there will be blood and tears if we continue towards the specific direction we are being swayed to.

    I for one am willing to sacrifice myself. But, does this mean we have to settle for mediocrity? Whoever we want to walk with… please, please, please come forth. Because if this isn’t the time then will we ever be granted another chance?

  4. Daulat

    It is a prerequisite for meaningful elections that the Maoists disarm and accept multi-party democracy. I think both the Maoists and the SPA understand that. In fact, constituent assembly was a cry raised by the Maoists. The SPA would have been satisfied by the reinstatement of the parliament. It was public pressure that forced them to accept the position of constituent assembly.

    I don’t think there is a military solution to the Maoists problem, unless we are ready for a prolonged war. Let us not forget that during most of the insurgency, it was parties who were trying to quell the insurgency. With it being they same again, what can be expect? There are some structural reasons for the emergence of the insurgency in the political scenario. And though they may have lost all public support due to the atrocities they have committed, until those structural problems are addressed, we might resolve the Maoist insurgency but another such will crop up. No group of people should be marginalized politically, socially, or economically.

    With the Maoists doing everything the parties have asked them to (withdraw the blockade, announce unilateral ceasefire), it seems they are just as eager to enter mainstream.

    The people too have been asking for ‘unconditional’ constituent assembly. It is the king that they consider the biggest threat to a peaceful Nepal. They do not want any condition imposed by the king before heading for an election that might save monarchy is any form. In the end, the fate of the king should be decided by the people themselves. The Maoist problem can be resolved by international mediation (preferably by an international body) and dialogue. Having accepted their call for an unconditional constituent assembly and surely aware of the power of the people, they will have no reason not to come into the mainstream politics.

Post Your Comments:

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *